We use our latest (as of 2026 Q1) AI-based economic scenario generator (ESG) to generate hundreds of economic scenarios. All generated scenarios are based on the Q4 2025 starting point and cover 20 quarters (5 years). The scenarios have 12 macroeconomic variables: In the following sections, we illustrate the distributions of economic variables within the […]
Tag: Correlation
Generated Scenarios for Industrial and Precious Metal Prices, 2026
Metals are essential components of modern economies, shaping industries from manufacturing to technology. To help businesses anticipate market shifts, we developed an AI-powered scenario generator that simulates monthly prices for industrial and precious metals. The generated scenarios provide monthly average prices of the following metals: By simulating real-world price paths, the generator enables users to […]
Economic Signals in Metal Markets
Metal markets often shift before headlines do, offering a quiet preview of economic cycles. The price movements of metals usually reflect changes in industrial demand, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic trends. While their relationship with broader economic indicators is complex and multifaceted, decoding these patterns can reveal powerful insights into the direction of the economy. Despite […]
Correlations in AI-generated Economic Scenarios, 2025
One important feature of the Economic Scenario Generators (ESG) is the reproduction of stylized facts observed in the historical data. While it might be challenging to quantify all stylized facts, a simple comparison of correlations between the historical data and the generated scenarios can provide significant insights into the behaviour of economic variables. We use […]
Correlation Between Macroeconomic Indicators
Economic indicators play a vital role in measuring the health of an economy. Some important macroeconomic indicators are the unemployment rate, consumer price index (or CPI which measures inflation), gross domestic product or GDP, disposable income, short-term and long-term interest rates (such as Fed Funds rate and Treasury rates), house price index, and stock market […]