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A Few Examples of AI-Generated Economic Scenarios, 2026

We outline four economic scenarios and examine how the key macroeconomic variables evolve within each. The example scenarios described here are randomly selected from thousands of scenarios generated by our proprietary AI model.In all illustrated economic scenarios, 2025 Q4 is the last actual period, and 2026 Q1 is the first generated period. For this discussion, […]

AI-generated Economic Scenarios, 2026

We use our latest (as of 2026 Q1) AI-based economic scenario generator (ESG) to generate hundreds of economic scenarios. All generated scenarios are based on the Q4 2025 starting point and cover 20 quarters (5 years). The scenarios have 12 macroeconomic variables: In the following sections, we illustrate the distributions of economic variables within the […]

Generated Scenarios for Industrial and Precious Metal Prices, 2026

Metals are essential components of modern economies, shaping industries from manufacturing to technology. To help businesses anticipate market shifts, we developed an AI-powered scenario generator that simulates monthly prices for industrial and precious metals. The generated scenarios provide monthly average prices of the following metals: By simulating real-world price paths, the generator enables users to […]

Economic Signals in Metal Markets

Metal markets often shift before headlines do, offering a quiet preview of economic cycles. The price movements of metals usually reflect changes in industrial demand, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic trends. While their relationship with broader economic indicators is complex and multifaceted, decoding these patterns can reveal powerful insights into the direction of the economy. Despite […]

Robustness of the AI-based Economic Scenario Generator

Econometric Scenario Generators (ESG) are key instruments in financial risk management. As such, the quality and robustness of the generated scenarios are important factors for reliable risk management. A key indicator of ESG quality is a reasonable correlation between economic variables and the preservation of stylized facts in the generated scenarios. In this post, we […]

Correlations in AI-generated Economic Scenarios, 2025

One important feature of the Economic Scenario Generators (ESG) is the reproduction of stylized facts observed in the historical data. While it might be challenging to quantify all stylized facts, a simple comparison of correlations between the historical data and the generated scenarios can provide significant insights into the behaviour of economic variables. We use […]

Future-Proofing Financial Risk: AI-based Economic Scenario Generator vs. Traditional Statistical ESG

In an era of increasing economic volatility, accurate risk measurement has become the cornerstone of financial resilience. Economic Scenario Generators (ESGs) – sophisticated models that simulate potential future economic conditions – stand at the core of risk management in financial organizations. Scenarios generated with an ESG allow financial professionals to assess the risk under various […]

Crude Chronicles: The Fascinating History of Oil Price Movements

Few commodities have shaped the modern world quite like oil. The ebbs and flows of this black gold have influenced geopolitics, sparked economic booms and recessions, and transformed entire countries. We explore the dramatic history of oil price movements starting from the late 1970s, discuss price crashes of the 1980s and 2014, consider the impact […]

A Few Economic Scenario Examples Generated by AI, 2025

We present a few specific economic scenarios and discuss the behavior of the underlying macroeconomic variables. The scenario examples described here are not cherry-picked but rather randomly selected from thousands of scenarios generated by our proprietary AI model.In all illustrated economic scenarios, 2024 Q4 is the last actual period, and 2025 Q1 is the first […]