We use our latest (as of 2026 Q1) AI-based economic scenario generator (ESG) to generate hundreds of economic scenarios. All generated scenarios are based on the Q4 2025 starting point and cover 20 quarters (5 years). The scenarios have 12 macroeconomic variables: In the following sections, we illustrate the distributions of economic variables within the […]
Tag: unemployment rate
Correlations in AI-generated Economic Scenarios, 2025
One important feature of the Economic Scenario Generators (ESG) is the reproduction of stylized facts observed in the historical data. While it might be challenging to quantify all stylized facts, a simple comparison of correlations between the historical data and the generated scenarios can provide significant insights into the behaviour of economic variables. We use […]
A Few Economic Scenario Examples Generated by AI, 2025
We present a few specific economic scenarios and discuss the behavior of macroeconomic variables we observed. The scenario examples discussed here are not cherry-picked but rather randomly selected from thousands of scenarios generated by our proprietary AI model.In all illustrated economic scenarios, 2024 Q4 is the last actual period, and 2025 Q1 is the first […]
Stylized Facts in Economic Scenarios
Economic scenarios are often highly complex, shaped by monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, bilateral trade agreements, labor market dynamics, and a host of other interrelated factors. This complicated reality of economics often requires a simplified interpretation to understand the underlying patterns and dynamics within scenarios. Stylized facts serve as guiding stars in navigating vast amounts of […]
Correlation Between Macroeconomic Indicators
Economic indicators play a vital role in measuring the health of an economy. Some important macroeconomic indicators are the unemployment rate, consumer price index (or CPI which measures inflation), gross domestic product or GDP, disposable income, short-term and long-term interest rates (such as Fed Funds rate and Treasury rates), house price index, and stock market […]